Supplementary Figure
![Figure S1. Markov model demonstrating HBV disease progression through various disease stages.[1]](https://journal.gzzoc.org.cn/storage/upload/public/2026/09/30/4f12c006d23249809f73fd2bfc6342022105119498481831936.png)
CHB = chronic hepatitis B; HBV = Hepatitis B virus; HCC = Hepatocellular carcinoma.

CHC = chronic hepatitis C; HCV = Hepatitis C virus; HCC = Hepatocellular carcinoma.

Red lines showed the disease progression with treatment.
Green lines showed neurological symptoms and development of neurosyphilis.

Patients entering the model were distributed into one of the four CD4+ based health states depending on their baseline CD4+ level. Based on their response to diagnosis/treatment, they were stratified in one of the four response states, including undiagnosed, treatment success, off therapy (failed virological suppression/ treat discontinuation), and death.
ART = antiretroviral therapy; HIV = human immunodeficiency virus.
Supplementary Table
|
Age, years |
Chronic hepatitis B Carrier |
Chronic infection |
Compensated cirrhosis |
Deompensated cirrhosis |
Hepatocellular carcinoma |
|
1 |
210.00 |
200.00 |
20.00 |
29.00 |
8.13 |
|
2 |
380.00 |
230.00 |
60.00 |
32.00 |
9.07 |
|
3 |
450.00 |
250.00 |
60.00 |
36.00 |
10.00 |
|
4 |
580.00 |
260.00 |
70.00 |
37.00 |
10.40 |
|
5 |
200.00 |
270.00 |
70.00 |
38.00 |
10.67 |
|
6 |
740.00 |
280.00 |
80.00 |
40.00 |
11.20 |
|
7 |
810.00 |
300.00 |
80.00 |
43.00 |
12.13 |
|
8 |
930.00 |
310.00 |
90.00 |
44.00 |
12.40 |
|
9 |
960.00 |
320.00 |
90.00 |
46.00 |
12.80 |
|
10 |
1020.00 |
340.00 |
90.00 |
48.00 |
13.60 |
|
11 |
1230.00 |
410.00 |
120.00 |
58.00 |
16.40 |
|
12 |
1410.00 |
470.00 |
130.00 |
67.00 |
18.80 |
|
13 |
1570.00 |
520.00 |
150.00 |
75.00 |
20.93 |
|
14 |
1760.00 |
590.00 |
170.00 |
84.00 |
23.47 |
|
15 |
1900.00 |
630.00 |
180.00 |
90.00 |
25.33 |
|
16 |
2030.00 |
680.00 |
190.00 |
96.00 |
27.07 |
|
17 |
2100.00 |
700.00 |
200.00 |
100.00 |
28.00 |
|
18 |
2170.00 |
723.30 |
206.20 |
103.10 |
94.00 |
|
19 |
2331.00 |
777.00 |
221.40 |
110.70 |
94.00 |
|
20 |
2504.00 |
834.67 |
237.90 |
118.90 |
94.00 |
|
21 |
2618.00 |
872.70 |
248.70 |
124.40 |
94.00 |
|
22 |
2865.00 |
955.00 |
272.10 |
136.10 |
94.00 |
|
23 |
3050.00 |
1017.00 |
289.80 |
144.90 |
94.00 |
|
24 |
3226.00 |
1075.00 |
306.50 |
153.20 |
94.00 |
|
25 |
3381.00 |
1127.00 |
321.20 |
160.60 |
94.00 |
|
26 |
3566.00 |
1188.70 |
338.80 |
169.40 |
94.00 |
|
27 |
3711.00 |
1237.00 |
352.50 |
176.30 |
94.00 |
|
28 |
3878.00 |
1293.00 |
368.40 |
184.20 |
94.00 |
|
29 |
4015.00 |
1338.00 |
381.40 |
190.70 |
94.00 |
|
30 |
4110.00 |
1370.00 |
390.45 |
195.20 |
221.99 |
|
31 |
4187.50 |
1396.00 |
397.80 |
198.90 |
221.99 |
|
32 |
4256.60 |
1419.00 |
404.40 |
202.20 |
221.99 |
|
33 |
4328.10 |
1442.70 |
411.20 |
205.60 |
221.99 |
|
34 |
4398.10 |
1466.00 |
417.80 |
208.90 |
221.99 |
|
35 |
4467.30 |
1489.10 |
424.40 |
212.20 |
221.99 |
|
36 |
4536.20 |
1512.00 |
430.90 |
215.50 |
221.99 |
|
37 |
4605.00 |
1535.00 |
437.50 |
218.70 |
221.99 |
|
38 |
4676.70 |
1558.90 |
444.29 |
222.10 |
221.99 |
|
39 |
4748.10 |
1582.70 |
451.07 |
225.50 |
221.99 |
|
40 |
4819.00 |
1606.33 |
457.81 |
228.90 |
286.50 |
|
41 |
4875.10 |
1625.00 |
463.13 |
231.60 |
286.50 |
|
42 |
4950.00 |
1651.00 |
470.25 |
235.10 |
286.50 |
|
43 |
4978.70 |
1659.60 |
472.98 |
236.50 |
286.50 |
|
44 |
5049.00 |
1683.00 |
479.66 |
239.80 |
286.50 |
|
45 |
5096.00 |
1699.00 |
484.12 |
242.10 |
286.50 |
|
46 |
5141.00 |
1714.00 |
488.40 |
244.20 |
286.50 |
|
47 |
5192.00 |
1731.00 |
493.24 |
246.60 |
286.50 |
|
48 |
5247.00 |
1749.00 |
498.47 |
249.20 |
286.50 |
|
49 |
5299.00 |
1766.00 |
503.41 |
251.70 |
286.50 |
|
50 |
5344.00 |
1781.33 |
507.68 |
253.80 |
363.80 |
|
51 |
5371.00 |
1790.30 |
510.25 |
255.10 |
363.80 |
|
52 |
5389.00 |
1796.33 |
511.96 |
256.00 |
363.80 |
|
53 |
5410.04 |
1803.35 |
513.95 |
257.20 |
363.80 |
|
54 |
5438.72 |
1812.90 |
516.68 |
258.30 |
363.80 |
|
55 |
5447.40 |
1815.80 |
517.50 |
258.80 |
363.80 |
|
56 |
5462.08 |
1820.69 |
518.90 |
259.40 |
363.80 |
|
57 |
5479.76 |
1826.60 |
520.60 |
260.30 |
363.80 |
|
58 |
5499.44 |
1833.15 |
522.40 |
261.20 |
363.80 |
|
59 |
5518.12 |
1839.37 |
524.22 |
262.10 |
363.80 |
|
60 |
5533.80 |
1844.60 |
525.71 |
262.90 |
363.80 |
|
61 |
5551.48 |
1850.49 |
527.39 |
263.70 |
363.80 |
|
62 |
5569.16 |
1856.39 |
529.07 |
264.50 |
363.80 |
|
63 |
5586.84 |
1862.28 |
530.75 |
265.40 |
363.80 |
|
64 |
5604.52 |
1868.17 |
532.43 |
266.20 |
363.80 |
|
65 |
5620.20 |
1873.40 |
533.92 |
267.00 |
363.80 |
|
66 |
5639.88 |
1879.96 |
535.80 |
267.90 |
363.80 |
|
67 |
5655.56 |
1885.00 |
537.30 |
268.60 |
363.80 |
|
68 |
5671.24 |
1890.00 |
538.80 |
269.40 |
363.80 |
|
69 |
5696.92 |
1898.97 |
541.20 |
270.60 |
363.80 |
|
70 |
5710.60 |
1903.50 |
542.50 |
271.30 |
363.80 |
|
Age, years |
Rate |
|
18 |
0.9518 |
|
19 |
0.7210 |
|
20 |
0.6843 |
|
21 |
0.6516 |
|
22 |
0.6104 |
|
23 |
0.5587 |
|
24 |
0.5036 |
|
25 |
0.4517 |
|
26 |
0.4115 |
|
27 |
0.3723 |
|
28 |
0.3451 |
|
29 |
0.3117 |
|
30 |
0.2816 |
|
31 |
0.2690 |
|
32 |
0.2508 |
|
33 |
0.2372 |
|
34 |
0.2151 |
|
35 |
0.2006 |
|
36 |
0.1846 |
|
37 |
0.1674 |
|
38 |
0.1528 |
|
39 |
0.1363 |
|
40 |
0.1294 |
|
41 |
0.1187 |
|
42 |
0.1095 |
|
43 |
0.1012 |
|
44 |
0.0944 |
|
45 |
0.0871 |
|
46 |
0.0785 |
|
47 |
0.0672 |
|
48 |
0.0587 |
|
49 |
0.0502 |
|
50 |
0.0431 |
|
51 |
0.0395 |
|
52 |
0.0362 |
|
53 |
0.0331 |
|
54 |
0.0304 |
|
55 |
0.0281 |
|
56 |
0.0254 |
|
57 |
0.0228 |
|
58 |
0.0193 |
|
59 |
0.0174 |
|
60 |
0.0157 |
|
61 |
0.0150 |
|
62 |
0.0150 |
|
63 |
0.0150 |
|
64 |
0.0150 |
|
65 |
0.0150 |
|
66 |
0.0150 |
|
67 |
0.0150 |
|
68 |
0.0150 |
|
69 |
0.0150 |
|
70 |
0.0150 |
|
Initial State |
Transition State |
Natural progression |
Source |
|
Unprotected |
Acute hepatitis B |
0.0083 |
[1] |
|
CHB carrier |
Inactive chronic infection |
0.015 (0-0.05) |
[2,3] |
|
Inactive CHB |
Delayed clearance |
0.01 (0.005-0.02) |
[4-6] |
|
|
CHB |
20-39 years 0.0023 ±50% ≥40 years 0.0054 ±50% |
[2,3,7-9] |
|
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
0.029 (0.015-0.058) |
[10] |
|
|
HCC |
20-39 years 0.002 ±50% ≥40 years 0.0061 ±50% |
[3,7,9,11 12] |
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
Decompensated cirrhosis |
0.073 (0.03-0.1) |
[13-18] |
|
|
HCC |
0.034 (0.01-0.1) |
[11,15,18-22] |
|
|
HBV-related death |
0.031 (0.031-0.038) |
[11,23] |
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
HCC |
0.034 (0.01-0.1) |
[11,15,18-22] |
|
|
HBV-related death |
0.17 (0.1-0.25) |
[11,18,24-26] |
|
HCC |
HBV-related death |
0.45 (0.22-0.7) |
[15,19,26-27] |
|
CHB = chronic hepatitis B; HBV = Hepatitis B virus; HCC = Hepatocellular carcinoma. |
|||
|
Initial State |
Transition State |
Estimates |
Source |
|
|
CHB initial therapy |
Sustained virologic response |
0.39 (0.15-0.75) |
[18] |
|
|
|
Cirrhosis |
0.002 (0.001-0.002) |
[28] |
|
|
|
HCC |
0.002 (0.001-0.005) |
[29] |
|
|
CHB long-term therapy |
Sustained virologic response |
0.797 (0.17-0.96) |
[30] |
|
|
|
Cirrhosis |
0.002 (0.001-0.002) |
[28] |
|
|
|
HCC |
0.012 (0.01-0.014) |
[31] |
|
|
Cirrhosis therapy |
Sustained virologic response |
0.30 (0.24-0.875) |
[32-33] |
|
|
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
0.019 (0.009-0.046) |
[28,32] |
|
|
|
HCC |
0.02 (0.016-0.044) |
[31,34] |
|
|
|
HBV-related death |
0.017 (0.012-0.048) |
[35-38] |
|
|
Decompensated cirrhosis therapy |
HCC |
0.024 (0.006-0.081) |
[29,34,39] |
|
|
|
Liver transplantation |
0.017 (0.001-0.042) |
[28,40] |
|
|
|
HBV-related death |
0.095(0.056-0.14) |
[35] |
|
|
HCC therapy |
Liver transplantation |
0.006 (0.001-0.03) |
[28,40] |
|
|
|
HBV-related death |
0.26 (0.25-0.27) |
[41] |
|
|
CHB = chronic hepatitis B; HCC = Hepatocellular carcinoma. |
||||
|
Items |
US$ (2022) |
Source |
|
Screening cost (per item) |
|
|
|
Hepatitis B surface antigen rapid test |
2.76 |
- |
|
Hepatitis B “five tests” HBsAg/HBsAb/HBeAg/HBeAb/HBcAb |
13.78 |
- |
|
Test cost (per item) |
|
|
|
Liver function test |
3.17 |
- |
|
Hepatitis B virus DNA test |
12.41 |
- |
|
Hepatocellular carcinoma test |
20.68 |
- |
|
Vaccination for adults (per item) |
4.55 |
[42] |
|
Average annual direct medical and non-medical cost at various infection stages |
|
|
|
Chronic hepatitis B |
2662.76 |
[43] |
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
4178.04 |
|
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
4567.30 |
|
|
Hepatocellular carcinoma |
7044.67 |
|
|
Liver transplantation |
34445.41 |
[43-44] |
|
Parameter |
Base-case |
Range |
Source |
|
Vaccine |
|
|
|
|
Efficacy against HBV infection |
97.9% |
97.6%-98.2% in China study 90-95% in France study |
[45-46] |
|
Probability of symptom-based case-finding |
|
|
|
|
Chronic HBV infection |
0.12 |
|
[1] |
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
0.15 |
|
[1] |
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
0.40 |
|
[1] |
|
Hepatocellular carcinoma |
0.60 |
|
[1] |
|
HbsAg/HbsAb |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity |
0.932 |
0.851-0.985 |
[47] |
|
Specificity |
0.931 |
0.851-0.999 |
[47] |
|
HBsAg/HBsAb/HBeAg/HBeAb/HBcAb |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity |
0.955 |
0.889-0.994 |
[47] |
|
Specificity |
0.998 |
0.993-1.000 |
[47] |
|
HBV-related death rate
|
|
|
|
|
HBV-related Cirrhosis mortality rate |
5.9 (/100,000) in 2016 |
|
[48] |
|
HBV-related liver cancer mortality rate |
17.76 (/100,000) in 2015 |
16.92-18.61 |
[49-52] |
|
Liver transplant |
|
|
|
|
Cases |
4732 cases in 2017 |
|
[44] |
|
Proportion of HBV-related diseases among LT |
80% |
|
[53] |
|
Utility score |
|
|
|
|
Viral suppression |
1.00 |
0.95-1.00 |
[54] |
|
Seroclearance |
0.99 |
0.90-1.00 |
[54] |
|
Inactive chronic HBV infection |
0.79 |
0.74-0.84 |
[55] |
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
0.73 |
0.69-0.78 |
[55] |
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
0.65 |
0.63-0.67 |
[55] |
|
Hepatocellular carcinoma |
0.38 |
0.36-0.41 |
[55] |
|
Liver transplantation |
0.67 |
0.64-0.69 |
[54] |
|
HBV = Hepatitis B virus. |
|||
|
Age, yrs |
CHC carrier |
Chronic infection |
Compensated cirrhosis |
Decompensated cirrhosis |
Hepatocellular carcinoma |
|
20-24 years |
1328.9724 |
0.7861 |
0.1100 |
0.1079 |
0.0236 |
|
25-29 years |
1357.2610 |
2.0953 |
0.2931 |
0.2876 |
0.0630 |
|
30-34 years |
1393.1480 |
5.2418 |
0.7332 |
0.7195 |
0.1580 |
|
35-39 years |
1400.6070 |
14.8357 |
2.0751 |
2.0363 |
0.4460 |
|
40-44 years |
1404.1448 |
35.0792 |
4.9065 |
4.8148 |
1.0500 |
|
45-49 years |
1387.1278 |
55.7472 |
7.7973 |
7.6516 |
1.6800 |
|
50-54 years |
1373.7813 |
96.5573 |
13.5054 |
13.2530 |
2.9000 |
|
55-59 years |
1323.0674 |
158.3034 |
22.1418 |
21.7279 |
4.7600 |
|
60-64 years |
1246.1583 |
232.43894 |
32.5111 |
31.9034 |
6.9884 |
|
65-70 years |
1151.7330 |
319.9742 |
44.7546 |
43.9180 |
9.6200 |
|
CHC = chronic hepatitis C. |
|||||
|
Initial State |
Transition State |
1-year transition probability |
Source |
|
|
Natural course |
After treatment |
|||
|
Unprotected |
Remain Unprotected |
99.85% |
- |
[58-59] |
|
|
CHC carrier |
0.0105% |
- |
[58-59] |
|
|
Chronic infection |
0.0045% |
- |
[58-59] |
|
CHC carrier |
Remain CHC carrier |
84.3% |
- |
[60] |
|
|
Chronic infection |
13.6% |
- |
[60] |
|
|
Resolved infection |
2.1% |
- |
|
|
Chronic infection |
Remained Chronic infection |
94.9% |
6% |
[60-61] |
|
|
Resolved infection |
0.5% |
94% |
[60-61] |
|
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
4.6% |
0 |
[60-61] |
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
Remain Compensated cirrhosis |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Resolved infection |
0 |
8.6% |
[62] |
|
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
4.8% |
0.2% |
[63] |
|
|
HCC |
4.2% |
0.5% |
[60,63] |
|
|
Death |
0 |
0 |
[63] |
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
Remain Decompensated cirrhosis |
78.59% |
97% |
[61,63] |
|
|
HCC |
7.5% |
1.05% |
[61,63] |
|
|
Liver transplantation |
2.11% |
0.3% |
[61,63] |
|
|
Death |
11.8% |
1.65% |
[61,63] |
|
HCC |
Remain HCC |
65.89% |
95.5% |
[61,63] |
|
|
Liver transplantation |
2.11% |
0.28% |
[61,63] |
|
|
Death |
32% |
4.22% |
[61,63] |
|
CHC = chronic hepatitis C; HCC = Hepatocellular carcinoma. |
||||
|
Items |
US$ (2022) |
Source |
|
Screening cost (per item) |
|
|
|
Hepatitis C virus antibody test |
2.76 |
- |
|
Test cost (per item) |
|
|
|
Hepatitis C virus RNA test |
34 |
[64] |
|
Genotyping test |
84 |
[64] |
|
Liver function test |
3.17 |
- |
|
Hepatocellular carcinoma test |
20.68 |
- |
|
Average annual cost at various infection stages |
|
|
|
Chronic hepatitis C infection |
1162 |
[65] |
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
3306 |
[65] |
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
7364 |
[65] |
|
Hepatocellular carcinoma |
15543 |
[65] |
|
Liver transplantation |
62413 |
[66] |
|
Post Liver transplantation |
9921 |
[66] |
|
Parameter |
Base-case |
Range |
Source |
|
Screening test |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity |
0.973 |
0.955-0.984 |
[67] |
|
Specificity |
0.989 |
0.980-0.994 |
[67] |
|
Utility score |
|
|
|
|
Chronic hepatitis C carrier |
0.93 |
0.90-0.96 |
[68] |
|
Chronic hepatitis C infection |
0.70 |
0.63-0.76 |
[68] |
|
Compensated cirrhosis |
0.55 |
0.48-0.65 |
[68] |
|
Decompensated cirrhosis |
0.45 |
0.48-0.61 |
[68] |
|
Hepatocellular carcinoma |
0.45 |
0.48-0.61 |
[68] |
|
Liver transplantation |
0.56 |
0.52-0.78 |
[69-70] |
|
Post Liver transplantation |
0.71 |
0.57-0.85 |
[69-70] |
|
Age, years |
Primary syphilis |
Secondary syphilis |
Early latent syphilis |
Late latent syphilis |
Untreated tertiary syphilis |
|
18 |
10.73 |
12.87 |
0.94 |
139.14 |
0.66 |
|
19 |
10.73 |
12.87 |
0.94 |
139.14 |
0.66 |
|
20 |
10.73 |
12.87 |
0.94 |
139.14 |
0.66 |
|
21 |
10.73 |
12.87 |
1.87 |
138.21 |
0.66 |
|
22 |
10.73 |
12.87 |
1.87 |
138.21 |
0.66 |
|
23 |
10.73 |
12.87 |
1.87 |
138.21 |
0.66 |
|
24 |
10.73 |
12.87 |
1.87 |
138.21 |
0.66 |
|
25 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
1.87 |
230.42 |
1.09 |
|
26 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.30 |
228.99 |
1.09 |
|
27 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.30 |
228.99 |
1.09 |
|
28 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.30 |
228.99 |
1.09 |
|
29 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.30 |
228.99 |
1.09 |
|
30 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.30 |
228.99 |
1.09 |
|
31 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.75 |
228.54 |
1.09 |
|
32 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.75 |
228.54 |
1.09 |
|
33 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.75 |
228.54 |
1.09 |
|
34 |
17.78 |
21.34 |
3.75 |
228.54 |
1.09 |
|
35 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
3.75 |
459.64 |
2.18 |
|
36 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.83 |
460.55 |
2.18 |
|
37 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.83 |
460.55 |
2.18 |
|
38 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.83 |
460.55 |
2.18 |
|
39 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.83 |
460.55 |
2.18 |
|
40 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.83 |
460.55 |
2.18 |
|
41 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.56 |
460.82 |
2.18 |
|
42 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.56 |
460.82 |
2.18 |
|
43 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.56 |
460.82 |
2.18 |
|
44 |
35.48 |
42.57 |
2.56 |
460.82 |
2.18 |
|
45 |
40.42 |
48.50 |
2.56 |
460.82 |
2.49 |
|
46 |
40.42 |
48.50 |
2.75 |
525.15 |
2.49 |
|
47 |
40.42 |
48.50 |
2.75 |
525.15 |
2.49 |
|
48 |
40.42 |
48.50 |
2.75 |
525.15 |
2.49 |
|
49 |
40.42 |
48.50 |
2.75 |
525.15 |
2.49 |
|
50 |
40.42 |
8.08 |
2.75 |
525.15 |
2.49 |
|
51 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.68 |
586.03 |
4.35 |
|
52 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.68 |
586.03 |
4.35 |
|
53 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.68 |
586.03 |
4.35 |
|
54 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.68 |
586.03 |
4.35 |
|
55 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.68 |
586.03 |
4.35 |
|
56 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
3.09 |
587.62 |
4.35 |
|
57 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
3.09 |
587.62 |
4.35 |
|
58 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
3.09 |
587.62 |
4.35 |
|
59 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
3.09 |
587.62 |
4.35 |
|
60 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
3.09 |
587.62 |
4.35 |
|
61 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.61 |
586.11 |
4.35 |
|
62 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.61 |
586.11 |
4.35 |
|
63 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.61 |
586.11 |
4.35 |
|
64 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.61 |
586.11 |
4.35 |
|
65 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
4.61 |
586.11 |
4.35 |
|
66 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
5.64 |
585.07 |
4.35 |
|
67 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
5.64 |
585.07 |
4.35 |
|
68 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
5.64 |
585.07 |
4.35 |
|
69 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
5.64 |
585.07 |
4.35 |
|
70 |
18.65 |
8.08 |
5.64 |
585.07 |
4.35 |
|
Age |
Incidence |
|
18 |
9.4241 |
|
19 |
9.4241 |
|
20 |
9.4241 |
|
21 |
18.7073 |
|
22 |
18.7073 |
|
23 |
18.7073 |
|
24 |
18.7073 |
|
25 |
18.7073 |
|
26 |
32.9777 |
|
27 |
32.9777 |
|
28 |
32.9777 |
|
29 |
32.9777 |
|
30 |
32.9777 |
|
31 |
37.4686 |
|
32 |
37.4686 |
|
33 |
37.4686 |
|
34 |
37.4686 |
|
35 |
37.4686 |
|
36 |
28.3134 |
|
37 |
28.3134 |
|
38 |
28.3134 |
|
39 |
28.3134 |
|
40 |
28.3134 |
|
41 |
25.608 |
|
42 |
25.608 |
|
43 |
25.608 |
|
44 |
25.608 |
|
45 |
25.608 |
|
46 |
27.5347 |
|
47 |
27.5347 |
|
48 |
27.5347 |
|
49 |
27.5347 |
|
50 |
27.5347 |
|
51 |
46.828 |
|
52 |
46.828 |
|
53 |
46.828 |
|
54 |
46.828 |
|
55 |
46.828 |
|
56 |
56.4094 |
|
57 |
56.4094 |
|
58 |
56.4094 |
|
59 |
56.4094 |
|
60 |
56.4094 |
|
61 |
62.9857 |
|
62 |
62.9857 |
|
63 |
62.9857 |
|
64 |
62.9857 |
|
65 |
62.9857 |
|
66 |
62.9295 |
|
67 |
62.9295 |
|
68 |
62.9295 |
|
69 |
62.9295 |
|
70 |
62.9295 |
|
Initial State |
Transition State |
1-year transition probability |
Source |
||
|
No treatment |
After treatment |
||||
|
Primary syphilis |
Remain |
0 |
0 |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Secondary syphilis |
40% |
9.4% |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Treated with no sequelae |
- |
90% |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
60% |
0.6% |
[74-77] |
|
|
Secondary syphilis |
Remain |
0 |
0 |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Early latent syphilis |
40% |
9.4% |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Treated with no sequelae |
- |
90% |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
60% |
0.6% |
[74-77] |
|
|
Early latent syphilis |
Remain |
0 |
0 |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Late latent syphilis |
40% |
9.4% |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Treated with no sequelae |
- |
90% |
[74-77] |
|
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
60% |
0.6% |
[74-77] |
|
|
Late latent syphilis |
Remain |
75% |
- |
[74,76-79] |
|
|
|
Tertiary syphilis |
24.4% |
- |
[74,76-79] |
|
|
|
Late neurosyphilis |
0.6% |
- |
[74,76-79] |
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
Remain |
98.56% |
8.56% |
[75,78-80] |
|
|
|
Tertiary syphilis |
1.44% |
1.44% |
[75,78-80] |
|
|
|
Treated with no sequelae |
- |
90% |
[75,78-80] |
|
|
*Neuro involvement can coexist with other infection status; thus, the total rate may exceed 100%. |
|||||
|
Items |
US$ (2022) |
|
Screening cost |
|
|
Syphilis screening |
8.27 |
|
Syphilis confirmation test |
20.68 |
|
Average annual cost at various infection stages |
|
|
Early syphilis (including primary, secondary, early latent) |
736.87 |
|
Late syphilis |
1117.82 |
|
Parameter |
Base-case |
Range |
Source |
|
|
Screening test sensitivity |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary syphilis |
0.93 |
0.77-1 |
[78] |
|
|
Secondary syphilis |
1 |
0.95-1 |
[78] |
|
|
Early latent syphilis |
1 |
0.95-1 |
[78] |
|
|
Late latent syphilis |
0.99 |
0.94-1 |
[78] |
|
|
Percentage of having symptoms |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary syphilis |
1.7% |
|
[82] |
|
|
Secondary syphilis |
1.7% |
|
[82] |
|
|
Early latent syphilis |
1.7% |
|
[82] |
|
|
Late latent syphilis |
0 |
|
[74] |
|
|
Tertiary syphilis |
30% |
|
[76] |
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
70% |
|
[74] |
|
|
Late neurosyphilis |
5% |
|
[74] |
|
|
Possibility of seeking treatment |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary syphilis |
35% |
|
[78,82] |
|
|
Secondary syphilis |
60% |
|
[78] |
|
|
Early latent syphilis |
100% |
|
|
|
|
Late latent syphilis |
0 |
|
[74] |
|
|
Tertiary syphilis |
19% |
|
[75] |
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
60% |
|
[74] |
|
|
Late neurosyphilis |
19% |
|
[75] |
|
|
Possibility of successful treatment |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary syphilis |
90% |
|
[77] |
|
|
Secondary syphilis |
90% |
|
[77] |
|
|
Early latent syphilis |
90% |
|
[77] |
|
|
Late latent syphilis |
0 |
|
[74] |
|
|
Tertiary syphilis |
77% |
|
[80] |
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
90% |
|
[77] |
|
|
Late neurosyphilis |
77% |
|
[80] |
|
|
Utility score |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary syphilis |
0.994 |
0.99-0.996 |
[75] |
|
|
Secondary syphilis |
0.96 |
0.94-0.98 |
[75] |
|
|
Early latent syphilis |
1 |
- |
[75] |
|
|
Late latent syphilis |
1 |
- |
[75] |
|
|
Tertiary syphilis |
0.76 |
0.67-0.75 |
[75] |
|
|
Early neurosyphilis |
0.95 |
0.92-0.97 |
[75] |
|
|
Late neurosyphilis |
0.80 |
0.71-0.88 |
[75] |
|
|
Age, years |
HIV+ CD4≥500 |
HIV+ 350≤CD4<500 |
HIV+ 200≤CD4<350 |
HIV+ CD4<200 |
|
18-24 |
7.80 |
18.00 |
19.98 |
14.22 |
|
25-29 |
7.80 |
13.20 |
22.38 |
16.62 |
|
30-34 |
27.08 |
61.60 |
86.80 |
104.44 |
|
35-39 |
12.12 |
47.60 |
98.84 |
121.24 |
|
40-44 |
8.70 |
43.50 |
97.73 |
140.07 |
|
45-49 |
14.50 |
48.43 |
87.00 |
111.07 |
|
50-59 |
9.32 |
38.68 |
138.80 |
213.20 |
|
60-69 |
12.35 |
51.25 |
183.91 |
282.49 |
|
≥70 |
7.22 |
29.98 |
107.57 |
165.23 |
|
HIV = human immunodeficiency virus. |
||||
|
Age, years |
Incidence |
|
18-19 |
4.6312 |
|
20-24 |
10.3240 |
|
25-29 |
17.9733 |
|
30-34 |
20.2556 |
|
35-39 |
15.1946 |
|
40-44 |
13.8324 |
|
45-49 |
13.1898 |
|
50-54 |
20.8168 |
|
55-59 |
12.8898 |
|
60-64 |
18.8789 |
|
65-69 |
18.8143 |
|
70-74 |
15.3597 |
|
75-79 |
11.7542 |
|
80-84 |
8.3400 |
|
≥85 |
5.6229 |
|
Initial State |
Transition State |
1-year transition probability |
|
|
Natural course |
After treatment |
||
|
CD4<200 |
Remain CD4<200 |
|
- |
|
|
200≤CD4<350 |
0.20 |
0.37 |
|
|
350≤CD4<500 |
0.07 |
0.17 |
|
|
CD4≥500 |
0.03 |
0.04 |
|
200≤CD4<350 |
Remain 200≤CD4<350 |
- |
- |
|
|
CD4<200 |
0.13 |
0.09 |
|
|
350≤CD4<500 |
0.24 |
0.34 |
|
|
CD4≥500 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
|
350≤CD4<500 |
Remain 350≤CD4<500 |
- |
- |
|
|
CD4<200 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
|
|
200≤CD4<350 |
0.20 |
0.17 |
|
|
CD4≥500 |
0.32 |
0.36 |
|
CD4≥500 |
Remain CD4≥500 |
- |
- |
|
|
CD4<200 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
|
|
200≤CD4<350 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
|
|
350≤CD4<500 |
0.18 |
0.16 |
|
Variables |
Base value (2022 $) |
|
Test costs per person screened |
25.4 |
|
Additional screening-related costs if positive |
44 |
|
Confirmatory Western blot test |
86.0 |
|
CD4 count test |
49.3 |
|
Viral load test |
308.4 |
|
Annual treatment costs |
|
|
Cost of ART |
545.2 |
|
Non-ART medical costs |
|
|
CD4≥500 |
3005.9 |
|
350≤CD4<500 |
3005.9 |
|
200≤CD4<350 |
7391.6 |
|
CD4<200 |
9661.4 |
|
ART = antiretroviral therapy; HIV = human immunodeficiency virus. |
|
|
Parameter |
Base-case |
Range |
Source |
|
Screening test |
|
|
[88] |
|
Sensitivity |
0.9521 |
0.9078-0.9791% |
|
|
Specificity |
0.9995 |
0.9983-0.9999 |
|
|
Probability of symptom-based case-finding |
[89 90] |
||
|
CD4≥500 |
0.050 |
0.034-0.085 |
|
|
350≤CD4<500 |
0.073 |
0.058-0.112 |
|
|
200≤CD4<350 |
0.154 |
0.146-0.451 |
|
|
CD4<200 |
0.872 |
0.216-1.000 |
|
|
The rate of failed virological suppression/ treat discontinuation |
[87] |
||
|
CD4≥500 |
0.00361 |
- |
|
|
350≤CD4<500 |
0.00320 |
- |
|
|
200≤CD4<350 |
0.00392 |
- |
|
|
CD4<200 |
0.00431 |
- |
|
|
Utility values |
|
|
[91] |
|
CD4≥500 |
0.94 |
0.92-1.00 |
|
|
350≤CD4<500 |
0.89 |
0.80-1.00 |
|
|
200≤CD4<350 |
0.83 |
0.45-1.00 |
|
|
CD4<200 |
0.73 |
0.24-0.80 |
|
|
Age/years |
Background death[92] |
Syphilis related death[75] |
HIV-related death with treatment[93] |
HIV-related death without treatment[93] |
|
18 |
41 |
70 |
996 |
5929 |
|
19 |
43 |
70 |
1044 |
6218 |
|
20 |
47 |
70 |
1142 |
6796 |
|
21 |
47 |
70 |
1142 |
6796 |
|
22 |
50 |
70 |
1214 |
7230 |
|
23 |
54 |
70 |
1312 |
7809 |
|
24 |
56 |
84 |
1360 |
8098 |
|
25 |
58 |
84 |
1409 |
8387 |
|
26 |
57 |
84 |
1384 |
8243 |
|
27 |
59 |
84 |
1433 |
8532 |
|
28 |
61 |
84 |
1482 |
8821 |
|
29 |
68 |
84 |
1652 |
9833 |
|
30 |
70 |
172 |
1700 |
10122 |
|
31 |
77 |
172 |
1870 |
11135 |
|
32 |
81 |
172 |
1967 |
11713 |
|
33 |
83 |
172 |
2016 |
12002 |
|
34 |
94 |
172 |
2283 |
13593 |
|
35 |
103 |
355.2 |
1219 |
7256 |
|
36 |
106 |
355.2 |
1254 |
7468 |
|
37 |
114 |
355.2 |
1349 |
8031 |
|
38 |
121 |
355.2 |
1432 |
8524 |
|
39 |
134 |
355.2 |
1586 |
9440 |
|
40 |
151 |
646.2 |
1787 |
10638 |
|
41 |
155 |
646.2 |
1834 |
10920 |
|
42 |
182 |
646.2 |
2154 |
12822 |
|
43 |
189 |
646.2 |
2237 |
13315 |
|
44 |
207 |
646.2 |
2450 |
14583 |
|
45 |
231 |
928.2 |
2734 |
16274 |
|
46 |
236 |
928.2 |
2793 |
16626 |
|
47 |
254 |
928.2 |
3006 |
17894 |
|
48 |
310 |
928.2 |
3668 |
21839 |
|
49 |
328 |
928.2 |
3881 |
23108 |
|
50 |
364 |
1667.4 |
1792 |
10666 |
|
51 |
375 |
1667.4 |
1846 |
10989 |
|
52 |
398 |
1667.4 |
1959 |
11663 |
|
53 |
441 |
1667.4 |
2171 |
12923 |
|
54 |
498 |
1667.4 |
2451 |
14593 |
|
55 |
518 |
1264.8 |
2550 |
15179 |
|
56 |
564 |
1264.8 |
2776 |
16527 |
|
57 |
609 |
1264.8 |
2998 |
17846 |
|
58 |
681 |
1264.8 |
3352 |
19956 |
|
59 |
767 |
1264.8 |
3775 |
22476 |
|
60 |
854 |
1102.1 |
4203 |
25025 |
|
61 |
938 |
1102.1 |
4617 |
27487 |
|
62 |
1038 |
1102.1 |
5109 |
30417 |
|
63 |
1112 |
1102.1 |
5473 |
32585 |
|
64 |
1301 |
1102.1 |
6404 |
38124 |
|
65 |
1421 |
5263.2 |
3316 |
19740 |
|
66 |
1474 |
5263.2 |
3439 |
20477 |
|
67 |
1723 |
5263.2 |
4020 |
23936 |
|
68 |
1864 |
5263.2 |
4349 |
25894 |
|
69 |
2191 |
5263.2 |
5112 |
30437 |
|
70 |
2557 |
3794.4 |
5966 |
35521 |
|
71 |
2673 |
3794.4 |
6237 |
37133 |
|
72 |
3094 |
3794.4 |
7220 |
42981 |
|
73 |
3359 |
3794.4 |
7838 |
46663 |
|
74 |
3744 |
3794.4 |
8736 |
52011 |
|
75 |
4151 |
6138 |
9686 |
57665 |
|
76 |
4219 |
6138 |
9845 |
58610 |
|
77 |
5097 |
6138 |
11893 |
70807 |
|
78 |
5620 |
6138 |
13114 |
78072 |
|
79 |
6212 |
6138 |
14495 |
86296 |
|
80 |
7428 |
6138 |
17332 |
100000 |
|
81 |
7791 |
6138 |
18179 |
100000 |
|
82 |
8581 |
6138 |
20023 |
100000 |
|
83 |
9352 |
6138 |
21822 |
100000 |
|
84 |
10363 |
6138 |
24181 |
100000 |
|
85 |
11100 |
6138 |
25901 |
100000 |
|
86 |
11888 |
6138 |
27739 |
100000 |
|
87 |
13007 |
6138 |
30350 |
100000 |
|
88 |
14418 |
6138 |
33643 |
100000 |
|
89 |
15687 |
6138 |
36604 |
100000 |
|
90 |
17652 |
6138 |
41189 |
100000 |
|
91 |
18524 |
6138 |
43224 |
100000 |
|
92 |
20211 |
6138 |
47160 |
100000 |
|
93 |
20735 |
6138 |
48383 |
100000 |
|
94 |
20891 |
6138 |
48747 |
100000 |
|
95 |
22001 |
6138 |
51337 |
100000 |
|
96 |
22099 |
6138 |
51566 |
100000 |
|
97 |
20484 |
6138 |
47797 |
100000 |
|
98 |
19813 |
6138 |
46232 |
100000 |
|
99 |
25765 |
6138 |
60120 |
100000 |
|
100 |
45435 |
6138 |
100000 |
100000 |
|
HIV = human immunodeficiency virus. |
||||
Literature search strategy (Pubmed)
1. (((((((((hepatitis B[MeSH Terms]) OR (hepatitis C[MeSH Terms])) OR (HBV[MeSH Terms])) OR (HCV[MeSH Terms])) OR (HIV[MeSH Terms])) OR (human immunodeficiency virus[MeSH Terms])) OR (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome[MeSH Terms])) OR (AIDS[MeSH Terms])) OR (syphilis[MeSH Terms])) OR (Treponema pallidum[MeSH Terms])
2. (((((((((((hepatitis B) OR (HBV)) OR (CHB)) OR (hepatitis C)) OR (HCV)) OR (CHC)) OR (AIDS)) OR (human immunodeficiency virus)) OR (acquired immune deficiency syndrome)) OR (HIV)) OR (syphilis)) OR (treponema pallidum)
3. 1 OR 2
4. ((((((((((cost-effectiveness) OR (cost-effective)) OR (cost-benefit)) OR (cost-utility)) OR (economic modelling)) OR (ICER)) OR (ICUR)) OR (Markov model)) OR (economic evaluation)) OR (economic analysis)) OR (QALY)
5. (((screening) OR (screen)) OR (detection)) OR (diagnosis)
6. ((((pre-surgical) OR (preoperative)) OR (surgery)) OR (operation)) OR (surgical)
7. 3 AND 4 AND 5 AND 6





